Australian Horse Rating Service

Adelaide Preview for 23rd of September 2006

2006-09-22T14:07:00.000+10:00

Morning fellas, morning all.Looks a sharp program 2moro with the Lindsay Park gunieas being run. Some sharp interstate artillery lining up and it will intersting to see how the race pans out.

Race 1. Going with Command Ridge in this event, tipped him last start, and rekcon he may go on with it here. Meets CHanging eyes on better weight terms and looks the value bet in the race.

Race 2. Having a crack at Haarena here, back at home track and down in class. Awkward draw but Neilson should be able to slot in somewhere near the rail. Should win.

Race 3. Going with Star Peril, back in grade, down in weight and suited at distance and track. Very hard to beat. Jockey the main worry. Will monitor betting with Siera cielo.

Race 4. Looks a two horse race, Maduro & Question of time. Take your pick.

Race 5. Tipping Made Of Diamonds, deemed good enough to tackle open WFA all be it with no weight. The much hyped victorian horses comig over may hpefully get us a price.

Race 6. Tough Race. Will be on Dark Ambition, confidence will sky rocket if theres a solid market move for him as hes resuming.

race 7. Ista Kareem, love it when horses drop back from WFA, gets in well with claim and well drawn. Hes Hard to beat.

Race 8. Looks Maldivian.

Best Bets
Race 2. Haarena
Race 6. Dark Ambition
Race 7. Ista Kareem each way
Race 8. Maldivian

Moonee Valley 15th of September Preview (Manikato Stakes Day)

2006-09-15T23:32:00.000+10:00

Pretty good meeting. Looking forward to it. First Group 1 race of the season. Let us pinpoint some winners.

Track Conditions:
Friday at 10am Track Good (3), Penetrometer 4.47, Rail True, Track had 7.5mm of rain earlier this week and was given 3mm of irrigation this morning. Fine weather predicted and track will be good.

Race 1:
Tricky affiar here. Any of the 10 runners could win. Not the right race to bet it, watch and learn.

Race 2:
Probably a two horse race here between Here de Angles and Muzdaher. Here de Angels has been outstanding at its only two runs smashing its opposition. We can expect another bold run here. Muzdaher has only missed the placings once all of its runs, and that day it had excuses. Its first up run was sound in a pretty handy listed race for 3yo's. Step up to 1200m is in its favour. With the claim gets 1.5kg's off Here de Angles in this race. I don't think there is as much between them as the early markets suggest. Warming to Muzdaher, but I am very wary of Here de Angels.

Race 3:
Not interested in these.

Race 4:
A probable odds-on runner here in Estelle Collection. Her only loss has been behind the smart Sharkbite and that was by a nose. I am not keen to take the odds likely to be offered for her however. A few in this race come out of the Crockett Stakes (1000m SWP Fillies MV) from the 26th of August. Permaiscuous won that race, coming from last to swamp then. Natural improvement will see it go close again. In that race I liked the run of Testajoy, she is still a mdn, but she had no luck in that race and wasn't to far off them, the step up in distance to 1200m will help her to I feel. Putting a big watch on it. Fun in Flight won't be far away either.
No real value here. Happy to watch them.

Race 5:
The Feehan Stakes, won last year by Lad Of The Manor holding off the great Makybe Diva who was flashing home late. This is only a small field this year, but it is a quality one. Fields Of Omagh is a grand old horse, his first up run was good enough, he'll be fitter for it, and he has a pattern to really improve big time second up. That pattern can continue tomorrow as he goes well at the valley and also at this distance range. Lad Of The Manor hasn't had much go right for him recently. Has had a few minor hiccups and perhaps that told on him at his most recent effort. He is too good to right off this early, but I want to see him return to something near his best before I warm to backing him. Apache Cat was outstanding second up. Missed the start, then was forced out 3wide the trip no cover working the whole way. He has had El Segundo in his way both times this time in, no El Segundo today and I think he'll like that and will be very hard to beat. Testafiable will be fitter for its run first up. May be ridden more quiter today and look for it to be running on late, may be looking for longer now. Red Dazzler has had a bit of a break between runs, and steps up to 1600m now. Thats my only worry with the horse, however it has had a 20day break before when it went from 1400m to 1600m and won here at the valley. He will run well. Spinney was very good first up, step up to 1600m suits, has been freshened also since the JJ Liston Stakes, will be running on. Spielmeister has been flying of late. Step up to WFA for the first time. Prefer to watch him first this level before backing him.
Going to stick with Apache Cat here.

Race 6:
not interested in betting here.

Race 7:
First Group 1 of the season. Its an interesting field to. Only one horse has won at group 1 level. And thats Dance Hero whos 3 group 1 wins came when he was a 2yo. So no horse here has won an open group 1 race, might be the first time in history thats happened? Anything could win this race. I'm expecting California Dane to improve out of sight here. All of his 5 wins have been at 1200m and 4 of those have been at this track. His stablemate, Miss Andretti is in career best form currently. She will be mighty hard to beat. Sassbee will be better suited here today back up to 1200m and he can turn the tables on Miss Andretti. Shadoways will be flying home late, but he gets back in his running and will need luck. You could make a case for anything.
I am sticking with California Dane

Race 8:
Tricky race, rather watch and learn.

Race 9:
A raffle.

Good punting.

MORPHETTVILLE 16th of September Preview

2006-09-15T19:17:00.000+10:00

Solid program tomorrow and i reckon ive got a few winners lined up. Only query i have is the amount of runners resuming, keep an eye on any significant betting moves.

Race 1. Can Red Aransas jump from a class 1 to open company and lob? Hmmmm tough question, this is an extremely weak affair. I think he can but id want $4 before having anything on him.

Race 2. Weak affair, all ill need is positve move early for eye lashes and ill be backing him. If hes a drifter ill back Zip baby Zip. Top run behind smart one last start. Market the key.

Race 3. The Big Gee keeps winning, i wont be betting here but i mark him on top.

Race 4. Big watch here on Delidio, ill be backing him to break even and having a bit of a crack at Tip The Dip.

Race 5. Borrow Money to back Miss Rubiton, this is not strong, drawn well has claim. Will win.

Race 6. Tough affair, will be searching for value here. Got a feeling Mina is pretty smart, though has drawn wide. Would wnat $6 about him. Marabeu is flying, search for value.

Race 7. Go Fuhever, knocking on the door, without Divine Madonna in the race id be declaring him. Obviously Divine madonna has to watched in betting.

Race 8. Glorious Baron looks in well at the weights looks a good bet here. Go very close, something on Ice land aswell.

Best Bets
race 5. Miss Rubiton
Race 7. Go Fuhever
Race 8. Glorious Baron

Intersting a few smart ones from adelaide have waltzed over to Victoria.

Flying Object & Shablec are both top chances and something each way on glory be wouldnt hurt.

Cheers and hopefully theres a few winners there again.

Cheltenham 9th of September Preview

2006-09-09T09:26:00.000+10:00

Quality program i feel, with a lot of horses resuming especially for the power yards of Hayes & Mcdonald. A few of these horses like Jennifer make the form hard to line up. But i reckon stick with the SA form and you wont go far wrong.

The hot topic: Time MattersTime matters, intersting runner, i have a big opinion of the top weight Potent Mix, however it is starting to get up in the weights. Time matters looked smart beating an ordinary lot in SA debut, i expecty him to start around a 2.5 - 3 favourite, Potent mix if you can get each way odds looks the value.

Race 2. Zedapest ran well in what was an ordinary affair last start. Hes my pick in the race but i wont be taking less than $4.5 about him as im not over confident. Something each way.

Race 3.Really tough race with a lot of horses resuming, barring any signifiacnt plunges for the resuming horses ill be having something on Command Ridge, drawn well, Lindop on and better for first outing. Hard to beat.

Race 4. Potent Mix very impressive inthis grade last time out, up in the weight but this is not strong. Bet to break even on Time Matters.

Race 5. Tough affair, leaning Dawnstorm whos had no luck of late and is knocking on the door, drawn to get the run of the race, gets in under the minimum with Benbow. Good each way chance.

Race 6. El maze has Lindop back on, was a decent effort last start, loves the 1000m. Unsure what to make of Brilliant Lad, can measure up? Keep an eye on market moves for the other 3 macdonald runners.

Race 7. Looks Royal Ida, its form is clearly superior to the rest and i reckon this horse is a group 2 to group 1 horse. Take the short odds. Hes a good horse.

Race 8. Looks Subsequential. Top effort last start behind Talented Akaton. Best bet of the day.

Best bets
Potent Mix
Subsequential
Royal Ida

Cheers lads and good punting.

Flemington 8th of September 2006 Craiglee Stakes

2006-09-08T18:00:00.000+10:00

no bets, to wet.

Caulfield Preview 02/09/2006 Memsie Stks Day

2006-09-01T20:54:00.000+10:00

A dead set corkers day of racing at Caulfield lined up for tomorrow. Really looking forward to seeing the Haradasun v Miss Finland showdown. Also we have the Memsie, the race Makybe Diva kicked her spring campaign off in last year. The race boasts 7 individual group 1 winners. The last race is also a corker; California Dane and Tesbury Jack both resuming. As too is Magically, add the smart Magnus and Crimson Reign and it looks a cracking race on paper. Winners won’t be easy to find, but we will do our best.
Predicted Track Conditions:
Friday at 10am Track Good (3), Penetrometer 4.97, Rail Out 10m, Track had 6mm rain this week and the track was watered 7mm yesterday morning. Mostly fine day predicted. Track expected to race well tomorrow.

Race 1
3yo Fillies Open Hcp 1400m
Good race to start off the day, but far too tricky to beat in I think. Prefer to watch and learn for the future. Look for a big run from Juste Momente, its ultimate aim this prep is the VRC Oaks, it showed good signs in its only two wins to date. Ulfah should improve, easy here in this race, but wasn’t entirely happy with her first up. Other horses have claims here. Steer clear.

Race 2
Fillies and Mares Open Hcp 1600m
No speed in this race. Soleil looks to take up the running from the inside gate. If she can get a soft lead she may be hard to run down. Its her first try at 1600m however, and I have my queries whether she can run a strong 1600m, so she is going to need as soft a lead as possible. Everyone will tip Purde, and on its last run I can see why. Purde can roll forward to sit a bit closer to the speed, and if it is to be any chance tomorrow I think that they will use those tactics. Rather see Empress Lily again, had a heart irregularity after its first up performance. Pavolva and Regal Summer head the rest.
Don’t think we will get any flash price about Purde, but I think she is the right bet in the race. Soleil is the biggest danger.

Race 3
3yo Group 3 SWP 1200m
Great race! Last season’s golden slipper winner up against the boom horse. Miss Finland v Haradasun should be a cracker. It’s only a small field of six, so tactics will play a vital part in the race. Haradasun was unbelievable first up, he has the makings of a champion, and I expect him to win. He is at his home track, has race fitness, and has drawn out which means he just has to find some cover and peel out to unleash that devastating turn off foot he has. Miss Finland is first up, but proved her class last time in winning the Golden Slipper in emphatic style. She’ll need a couple of runs to be at her best, but I expect a bold showing tomorrow. Lectrice is capable, but not sure if she is up to these two. Due Sasso will push forward, surely will look the winner at some stage, back on top of the ground helps, he backs up, which is the only query. Mondano needs to improve again on top of its run last week, backing up don’t know if he can. Zupaone faces his toughest task so far, and I would rather wait to see what this guy does before backing him.
They say a good colt beats a good filly; Haradasun is a good colt, I think he will win.

Race 4
Mares Open Hcp 1100m
Tricky race. Horses resuming, happy to watch and learn.

Race 5
Listed Open Hcp 1700m
All points to Maybe Better here. I love when horses run cracking races at WFA and then drop back to HCP conditions. This guy is doing that, and I expect him to put in a bold showing. Show Barry is a very tough horse, his second up record is sound, and he comes out of the same race as Maybe Better. Expect him to be there about. Growl is going very well, faces his biggest test so far in his career, but is going so well at the moment he cannot be ignored. Assertive Guest was very good last start, posted wide the trip and had to dig in deep to win, if that run has taken to much out of her she will be running well in this. Watch for Tommifrancs, Cefalu, Pie Oh My and Molotov to be running on.

Race 6
Group 2 Open WFA
Cracking field! Cracking race! Have gone over and over this race and I keep thinking to myself the class will rise to the top. El Segundo is my pick here. His run first up was nothing short of brilliant. He is trained at the track and has a good record over the distance and second up. Most importantly he is a WFA horse. I have queries on Lad Of The Manor. I think he is a very talented galloper, but he has been scratched on race day at his past two, I would rather see him run first before getting on him. Can’t look past Perfect Promises first up record, which is very good. Have a feeling she will be right in this, but don’t know where she will end up from barrier 2. Apache Cat is a very good horse, rain will help his cause. Thin and Crispy will need luck as usual with his racing pattern. Expect Minson to bounce back.
Stick with El Segundo.

Race 7
Open Hcp 1400m
Not keen to play here, prepared to just watch.

Race 8
Listed SWP 1100m
This is another exciting race on paper. California Dane is a very smart horse, however all his winning form is at Moonee Valley. That is the only query, I think come Manikato Stakes we will see this guy at his best, I am happy to risk him and look elsewhere tomorrow. Tesbury Jack may be anything. I was very taken by his first prep. He’ll run a huge race here I feel. I have heard he is flying and I think he’ll win. Magnus has good form through Royal Ida in Adelaide. Has a fitness edge, and he’ll run well. Magically and Crimson Reign are capable on their days, they’ll both run well. Holding, Dea, Classiconi and Shadoways all with a chance.
Stick with Tesbury Jack

Flemington 12th of August Preview

2006-08-11T14:41:00.000+10:00

What a day’s racing we have in store for us tomorrow at Flemington. The long awaited return of that good galloper El Segundo, as well as Cadbury Guineas winner Apache Cat and last years Emirates Stakes winner Valedictum. All of these horse resume in the Aurie’s Star Hcp. The race after it has some cup contenders resuming. Jagger from the Hayes stable, Tommifrancs the winner of the Baggot Hcp at this track as well as Molotov, an exciting stayer who will be Jim Conlan’s big Melbourne Cup hope. The support card is very strong, finding winners will be a reasonably difficult job.
Track Update: At 10am today the track was rated a Dead (5). The outlook in Melbourne is mostly fine with the chance of a shower today and fine weather tomorrow. Chance of an upgrade to Dead (4) tomorrow is what is being said. In my experience at Flemington, if it’s dry today and tomorrow, we could nearly expect a Good (3).
Rail: out 7 metres.

Preview:

Race 1:
3yo Fillies
1410m
Some very nice young fillies in this race. She Will Be Loved was a super return on the 15/07 at Moonee Valley. Back to her home track and has had a nice little freshen since that run, I’m expecting her to be very competitive. Al Anood goes from the 1000m to the 1400m in a week. I am prepared to risk this horse. Sunny Skies won a restricted race here at Flemington on the 30th of July; it is also jumping from the 1000 to 1410m. Not extremely keen on the others. There does look to be good speed in the race, She Will Be Loved should get a nice run, it’ll give a good show.

Race 2:
Mares
2000m
I hated this race, won’t be playing.

Race 3:
3yo Open
1410m
Good race. I like Okay Oky just ahead of Longbowman. Both come out of the same race won by Éclair Passion who looks pretty smart. Wordsmith won midweek, thanks to a great ride by D. Oliver; he hops off on to Danequest here. Galen may need the run. Stormpede is two from two this time in and will give a nice sight. I’m going to stick with Okay Oky.

Race 4:
Open Hcp
2530m
I’m just wondering if Bluetigeroo has come to the end of this campaign and wants the paddock now. Look, his last start the way the race was ran gave him no chance in hell of ever catching the winner. He is untried at the distance, but does have a senior rider back on top in Gauci. He should go all right. Evil Master is always thereabouts in these type of races. Gold Attire will also be thereabouts. It’s a trick race; Ascana wouldn’t shock along with Danerette. I might sit out of this one.

Race 5:
Open Hcp
1710m
Didn’t fancy anything in this.

Race 6:
Listed Hcp
1200m
Probably the strongest Aurie’s Star in a few years. Bel Danoro had nothing go its way last start. Danerich ran it off the track, it deserved to finish closer. It rated 107.9 that day, with the winner rating 117.1. I don’t think Bel would have challenged the winner, but he differently should have ran third, how close to the winner is an unknown. He does need to improve on that run, but with no weight on his back, he really should be winning this if he wants to be a half decent racehorse. Apache Cat; wouldn’t be on this guy till he is second up. El Segundo is the one I am uncomfortable with. He is a star in the making. Has a real good turn off foot. The queries are the pace in the race, which looks moderate, and the fact he didn’t race in the autumn. Valedictum ran second in this last year, carries the same weight this time in, he should be giving you a good sight. I’ll stick with Bel Danoro as he has the fitness edge on the ones resuming.

Race 7:
Open Hcp
1410m
Tricky race. Spielmeister’s first up run was very good; if he has come through that all right he’ll nearly win this. Jagger is the watch horse from Hayes yard. Roubechon has had much go its way this time in. Interesting race.

Race 8:
Mare Hcp
1610m
Didn’t really like this race too much.

Caulfield Review 5th of August 2006

2006-08-09T22:29:00.000+10:00

A great days racing was held at Caulfield last Saturday (5th of August). It saw the return of perhaps a couple of springs major players. The Bletchingly Stakes was the highlight of the day for mine. It was the return of the mighty Minson, who now has six wins from as many starts. There were some other great runs on the day as will be highlighted.

General Information:
Track: Good 3
Penetrometer: 5.04
Weather: Fine
Rail: +4m entire circuit

Race One
1100m
Mares Hcp
Ratings Summary:
Xaaranthe 99.9
Con's Amy 98.9
Hot Sands 92.7
Pinezero 93.8
Amarazetti 93.3
Camp Dawn 94.3
Cheree's General 91.7
Classy Century 86.8

Hot Sands led the field here, setting an even tempo (29.7 for the first 500m). She boxed on pretty well after being headed in the straight by first Con’s Amy, who will be better for the run, but then Xaaranthe, who got back last 4.5L trailing, raced down the outside to record a nice win. Pinezero had no luck whatsoever nor did Amarazetti. If these two get luck next start they can be expected to improve. Four lengths covered this field, it was a very even race, don’t think there are any standouts in this field, just a nice even spread of mares.

Race Two
1000m
3yo Open Hcp
Ratings Summary:
Dewabbit 99.9
Gowiththeheart 100.3
Catechuchu 97.8
Accurate Gun 94.3
Hiawatha 91.3
Jorston 83.7
Al Fawzi 81.0
Timido 81.4
Evacuate 74.5

There were some very encouraging runs in this race. Gowiththeheart was extremely green, when it gets its act together this horse will be putting a few wins together. Dewabbit raced clear inside the 200m, and was just good enough to hold on by .2L. Catechuchu will be better over more ground, really found the line strongly after meeting some interference on the turn. Also didn’t mind Hiawatha’s run.

Race Three
1000m
3yo Fillies Hcp
Ratings Summary:
La Vie Amour 94.9
Al Anood 92.5
Bernini's Gem 80.2
La Famelia 77.7
Princess Carnegie 77.5
Our Mohave 77.1
White Diamonds 73.8
Secret Cause 74.2
Rustia 74.4
You're Fantastic 70.0

The first two gapped the rest of them here. La Vie Amour is a very nice horse. Has plenty of maturing to do, and I read that Moody might send it to the paddock, which wouldn’t be a bad idea. Was forced out of the track a bit turning, but was able to accelerate away from on straightening. Al Anood was also a very nice run.

Race Four
1400m
3yo Fillies & Mares Hcp
Ratings Summary:
Dyna Myta 99.4
Rulan Ruby 101.7
Assertive Guest 97.0
Kalashani Star 92.8
Nothin' Like Mary 92.7
Shasta 92.4
Acceleration 91.6
Thunderousapplause 89.5
Classic Pink 91.5
Valiya 91.7
Diamond Masque 86.1

What a super ride here by Nick Hall to get Dyna Myta home. His first ride in town was a successful one, and good luck to him in the future. Dyna Myta has an impressive record, I think it has only been unplaced once or twice; it’s a horse I’ll continue to follow in the short-term future. Rulan Ruby did give it a fair chunk of weight, all things being equal, she nearly wins this, and it was a nice return. Assertive Guest was trapped out 3 wide the trip, battled on fairly. Not much else caught my eye.

Race Five
1400m
Open Hcp
Ratings Summary:
Caprizzi Strip 111.5
Point Of Call 108.6
Roadhog 109.4
Stickpin 106.1
Canary Islands 101.7
Absolute Truth 100.8
Two Sons 98.4
Coffeeshoprumours 98.9
Chakotay 95.6
King's Scholar 94.5
Exchequer 70.9

Caprizzi Strip led throughout here setting an even tempo (36.56 for the first 600m). Point Of Call was with it on the turn, but Caprizzi just kicked clear and went on to win by 2.3L. Of the back markers I want to point out Roadhog. He got a mile back (7L) off the leader, was still 6.5L off at the 600m. Balanced up in the straight and was about to commence a run, before being checked, and then rocketed home the last 200m. Its sectionals from the 600m were: 34.86/23.22/11.68. They were clearly the best in the race. Stickpin is getting fitter and was a bit better also I thought.

Race Six
1200m
Group 2 Open WFA
Ratings Summary:
Minson 119.6
Red Dazzler 117.3
Snort 107.8
Thin And Crispy 111.4
Super Elegant 103.7
Mind Your Head 101.8
Danerich 91.4
Roubechon LR

He just keeps stepping up does Minson. He is a super little horse. I like him because he puts himself in the race, and when he looks beaten he digs deep. Red Dazzler loomed up and for a stride I thought it was going to go straight past Minson, but Minson held him by a length. I know these aren’t the best horses in the land, but you can only beat what you are given, and Minson continues to. Danerich went very hard here out front (34.24 for the first 600m). I want to see Snort first of all against his own age at stakes level, and second of all win. He found the line very well, as he has in a majority of his race starts. I think that Flemington will suit him down to the ground, and a step up in distance might also help. There is a 1400m SWP race coming up at Flemington in about a month; I think a race like this would really suit this horse. Thin And Crispy, deserved to finish a little closer, the run came for him early on in the straight, but he just wasn’t quite there to take it. 1600m will be this guys go this time in, as it was last time. Super Elegant, maybe felt the effects of a gut busting first up run, and he isn’t getting any younger? Just forget about Mind Your Head’s run, he ran into heaps of trouble.

Race Seven
1100m
Open Hcp
Ratings Summary:
Judusk 105.6
He's Unique 103.4
Surprise Impact 102.4
Juggle The Books 101.2
Watchyerback 100.8
Brannigan 100.0
Bexaar 98.6
Ghost Party 93.7
Lord Of Lauriston 64.1
It's Picnic 41.0

He’s Unique tried to do it all, setting an even speed (28.62 first 500m), he did battle on pretty well. Judusk recorded a nice win. Surprise Impact and Juggle the Books were both very nice efforts. Not a great field here I thought.

Race Eight
2000m
Open Hcp
Ratings Summary:
Jukebox Johnny 102.4
Alto Adige 100.8
Danerette 97.6
Pindari Prince 97.9
Saarjun 95.1
Ascana 97.1
Beach D'or 87.9
Morsonique 89.3
Yomee 89.4

They went hard early, and then the pace slackened a bit (1000m in 64.19). Beach D’or set the speed, but compounded pretty easily. Alto Adige had every chance to win, no excuses; he had a run given to him on a platter as the leader lay out off the rails. Jukebox Johnny was just too good, that’s two from two this prep. Danerette made a sustained run three deep from a long way out, she is always competitive in these sorts of races.

Any queries please drop us an email:
ausratingservice@hotmail.com

2006-08-06T12:40:00.000+10:00

Whilst Mr Rump is the Melbourne expert, i for the past few years have rated and punted in Adelaide exclusively. My success rate has been quite solid for a long period now as Mr Rump will attest. My method differs to that of Mr Rump but the essence of our methods are very similar, Over the next month or so i will 'price' races in Adelaide, ill elaborate on how i will do this over the next few weeks. For now ill post a page dedicated to adelaide metropolitan meetings and which horses to bet on, who to be with and in what manner to bet. I beleive once you have the ability to find winners you must maximise your value, as finding value is the only way to win.

Stay tuned

Mr Dazzler

Mr Rump introduction

2006-08-02T18:15:00.000+10:00

Hello,

Welcome to this website. I am Mr Rump. I hope you find it helpful in your quest to find more winners on the punt. I will review and preview all Melbourne metropolitian saturday and public holidays thoroughbred race meetings. It is a free service, no hidden strings, just my opinion.

A little bit about the methods I use. I have read Don Scott's books on his weight and class methods. I used his methods for near on a year. Whilst they were useful and I had some success with them, I found them a little dated and believed that there was another way to rate race horses. After months of research and reading, I developed a way to rate horses that I believe will be very successful. The focus of my ratings has turned to times. I believe the quicker the horse the better it is. I still pay attention to weight, but use a different method than the old 1.5kg = 1lenght. Imagine you have a back pack with a brick in it. You walk laps around a oval. The more you walk, the more the brick begins to bog you down. I believe this would be the same effect on a horse. Therefore the longer the race distance, the more the weight becomes a factor. Therefore I use this scale:
upto 1200m: 4kgs = 1L
1300m to 1400m: 3kgs = 1L
1500m to 1600m: 2kgs = 1L
1700m+: 1.5kg = 1L
I convert the difference between the weight carried and 53kg to a seconds per lenght figure. In my research I have found that 1L = .16secs. I also consider the track variant on the day compared to a standard day. Factors such as rain affected tracks or strong winds can effect times, so this is the reason for the track viarant. I also consider a sectional rating, comparing the horses individual last 600m to the time the field took to run the last 600m. A rating is found by comparing the standard time to the adjusted time off the horse. I don't adjust for any other disadvantages. I prefer to note these in my comments. I found that when I was using Scott's methods that often times, a horse would be overrated if they were badly held up, or checked. How was I to know for sure that if the horse had of got that run it would have won? No one knows for sure. This is why I prefer to just comment on the run. An example of this is Apple Lode. I think this guy has some potential. His last three ratings have been:

1. on the 8th of July he rated 102.7

2. on the 22nd of July he also rater 102.7. With a comment that read: not best away, got well back, not tested to last 100m, good when clear.

There was still obvious improvement in this horse, as he had no luck, yet still managed to rate the same as his previous rating of 102.7 when he won. We know that Apple Lode should have rated above 102.7 on the 22nd of July, how much is a mystrey. The winner that day rated 113.3. Therefore one might say, that Apple Lode deserved to rate somewhere in between the 102.7 and the 113.3 of the winner.

3. Apple Lode backed up a week later on the 29th of July and won, recording a new peak of 114.1.

By reading the comments posted on each horse, and comparing the ratings, it is my goal to provide you the reader with a guide to backing winners in Melbourne.

If you have any queries at all, please ask. Email them to:
ausratingservice@hotmail.com

Mr Rump.